PH, Central Visayas economic performance outlook

CEBU CITY – The Philippine economy grew by 4.4 percent in 2025, down from 5.7 percent in 2024, with services contracting by 5.9 percent while Central Visayas, valued at 1.32 trillion, grew by 3.7 percent despite global and domestic headwinds, with key growth sectors include wholesale and retail, financial services, and human health, while manufacturing declined by 9 percent.

Evelyn Nacario-Castro, Assistant Regional Director of the Department of Economy, Planning, and Development (DEPDev)-Region 7 presented the economic outlook of the country and Central Visayas at the Investment and Entrepreneurship Summit, June 4 at Radisson Blu Hotel hosted by the Cebu Chamber of Commerce and Industry (CCCI) as an opening salvo for the Cebu Business Months (CBM) 2026.

Castro went on to say that in the first quarter of 2026, growth moderated to 2.8 percent due to domestic and global pressures, including the Middle East crisis. Unemployment in Central Visayas averaged 4.59 percent, lower than the national rate of 4.68 percent.  

Inflation was higher in Central Visayas due to geopolitical tensions and disasters, while future growth depends on energy diversification, improved logistics, and policy reforms. The region aims for stable growth, managed inflation, and sustained investments, she added.

      Challenges, growth drivers, macroeconomic indicators and labor statistics

Central Visayas faced challenges such as back-to-back typhoons, flood control scandals, and declining investor confidence.  The economy is heavily services-driven at 71 percent, followed by industry at 24 percent and agriculture at 4.8 percent.

Services continue to lead growth at 5.2 percent, while agriculture declined slightly, Castro noted that major contributors to the regional economy include wholesale and retail, financial insurance activities, real estate, and human health.

On macroeconomic indicators and labor stats, the Philippines labor market saw unemployment rise from five percent in March 2026 but remains competitive regionally, with unemployment rate in Central Visayas averaged at 4.59 percent in 2025, lower than the national average of 4.68 percent.

Indicators said that underemployment in Central Visayas was consistently lower than the national level, with rates of 9.7 percent and 13.7 percent respectively.  Inflation rates were higher in Central Visayas due to geopolitical tensions and supply disruptions from disasters, the report said.

Future growth outlook, strategic priorities

According to Castro that the economy is expected to grow but is shaped by global shocks and domestic challenges.  Central Visayas is particularly inflation-sensitive due to its geography and economic structure.

Key strategic priorities include energy diversification, improving transport and supply chains, and enhancing investor confidence through policy reforms. The region must also focus on diversifying agriculture into higher value segments and investing in skills, health, and education to build a competitive workforce, the report said.

“There are three possible paths for the region: moderate growth, downside scenario, and upside scenario.  In the baseline scenario, growth is expected to normalize to 4-5 percent, with moderate inflation and selective investments,” Castro added.

According to Castro, the downside scenario involves higher oil prices, global recession risks, and slower tourism growth, with potential unemployment rising in tourism-linked sectors.  The upside scenario sees oil prices stabilizing, logistics improvements, and manufacturing diversification, with growth reaching 5-6 percent.

“The future is uncertain, but the goal is to achieve stable growth, controlled regulation, and sustained investments.  Achieving this requires coordinated management, fiscal and structural policies, and strategic investments informed by timely statistics and data, Castro said.

The region must focus on innovation, collaboration, and the determination of all leaders to sustain and protect growth, with a call to action for all stakeholders to support the economic growth and development of Central Visayas, Castro concluded. (Photos: MBCNewman)