MINERVA BC NEWMAN
CEBU CITY – A new survey with the global travel industry leaders conducted by Collinson and CAPA-Centre for Aviation from September 6 to 30, 2021 with 414 survey responses from 68 countries showed an increase in expectation of travel resumption to pre-pandemic levels in 2023, versus expectations from five months ago.
Business and long-haul travel to remain the slowest-recovering travel segments in 2022, while short-haul leisure travel sees the beginnings of a revival in certain locations. Survey results said optimism is subdued in the Asia Pacific region, as senior aviation and travel experts remain more cautious than their global counterparts.
As the travel ecosystem continues to adapt to the ongoing Covid-19 pandemic, a newly launched second edition of the ‘Asia Pacific Travel Recovery Report’ from Collinson, a global end-to-end travel experiences, airport services and travel medical company, and CAPA – Centre for Aviation showcases the latest travel industry recovery predictions, including traveler expectations for the coming year and beyond.
The extensive survey of more than 400 C-Suite and senior managerial level travel industry experts from leading global travel brands revealed that while 37 percent of respondents are now expecting a ‘full recovery’ to 2019 pre-pandemic levels in 2023 compared to 35 percent in the April 2021 survey, optimism that herd immunity would be reached in the US, UK and a few other developed countries has slipped from 33 percent to 24 percent. Additionally, concerns around quarantine and fraudulent Covid-19 test results remain a worry for respondents.
Polarization with regards to travel controls, testing and policies remain globally, with market requirements, protocols and measurements continuing to change over the course of the last few months.
Survey said that 43 percent of experts now expect border re-opening arrangements by governments to ease or substantially ease in 2022 while 32 percent of global respondents still expect border reopening arrangements by governments to evolve at different rates in 2022.
This is a significant reduction from the April 2021 survey of 56 percent where uncertainty dominated with testing to remain and quarantine phased out.
Survey bared that confidence in testing
protocols enabling a safer return to travel was at 54 percent, an increase of
three percent since April 2021 and expecting robust Covid-19 testing to remain
key to re-opening borders until the end of 2022, with a further 26 percent
expecting this until the end of 2023.
This mindset can be seen by the recent border re-openings in markets such as Singapore, Australia and the United States, all of which cite Covid-19 tests as core components for reduced quarantine or even quarantine-free travel, survey results said.
To address those concerns, Collinson partnered with over 30 airlines, airports and technology providers globally both to help implement enhanced verification processes at key checkpoints in the journey, as well as make trusted, accredited Covid-19 testing more easily accessible to travelers.
Globally, 72 percent of surveyed shared the view that traveler vaccine documentation is of ‘vital importance’, with most governments not risking re-opening borders without them. This is an increase of five percent when compared to the April study.
Conversely, less than a fifth or 18 percent considered them ‘not important’, as some governments will allow access regardless of digital health documents.
Once a traveler has entered a country, they then face possible quarantine. Almost two-fifths of experts or 38 percent now expect quarantine measures will remain in place for the foreseeable future as an extra safety precaution in addition to vaccinations and testing, up from 23 percent in April 2021.
A larger number of industry leaders remain hopeful regarding imminent action in this area as 42 percent believe quarantine measures will be phased out by the close of 2021, in line with vaccinations and testing measures becoming more widely available. However, the sentiment has evidently decreased when compared to 58 percent who were of the same belief back in April 2021.
Survey said that a large proportion of experts believe that travel is ‘extremely safe’ if everyone adheres to preventative solutions such as mask wearing and social distancing. But that said, the figure has dropped by a noticeable 17percent with 42 percent recorded in September; 59 percent in April, suggesting a dip in confidence despite the widespread vaccine rollout and given the varied nuances as to what individuals may consider to be safe solutions.
Insiders considering travel as simply ‘not safe’ has doubled from four percent in April 2021 to 10 percent in September 2021 which is indicative of the opportunity to reassure, educate and communicate to passengers how safety remains the utmost priority, particularly as more travelers take to the skies, survey said.
Questions remain on whether travelers will be able to kick back and relax once their plans are booked. Unlikely, according to the survey, with three-quarters of experts or 79 percent opting to believe that travel will feel ‘more stressful’ than before the pandemic (up from 70 percent in April 2021).
The results showed a likely increased desire to be ‘away from the madding crowds’ with fast-track accesses and lounge experiences preferred, for peace of mind. This is in line with Priority Pass’s global drive to enhance lounge experiences for travelers; with the introduction of Be Relax Spas for the ultimate pre-flight relaxation, and contactless food and beverage offerings such as Ready 2 Order set to double its presence across the lounges for a seamless dining experience.
While short-haul business and corporate travel have made a cautious comeback in certain markets, there’s been little movement between the April 2021 and September 2021 surveys.
In predicting travel in 2022, just over a third or 35 percent of respondents expect a 41-60 percent recovery to 2019 pre-pandemic levels of short-haul business travel, while 23 percent are more positive and expect to hit 61-80 percent of 2019 levels next year.
Only eight percent see 80+ percent of 2019 levels next year, indicative of the tapestry of travel remaining in its ‘new norm’.
In Asia Pacific specifically, just 24 percent see short-haul corporate travel recovering to more than 61 percent of 2019 levels next year and seven percent see demand reaching four-fifths of 2019 levels.
Long-haul business travel remains the furthest from reach, survey went on that recovery to 2019 levels is expected to take longer than any of the other segments, with respondents becoming less confident in the timescale of segment recovery, due to travel restrictions remaining imposed far longer than previously anticipated.
According to 86 percent of respondents, less than two-thirds of the long-haul business/corporate travel market will be back next year. While in Asia Pacific, just under a third or 30 percent of survey respondents believe that we won’t even reach 20 percent of 2019 levels next year.
Handcock said that while travel recovery progress isn’t happening at the pace people had hoped for, particularly in the Asia Pacific region, experts are seeing steps in the right direction more generally, namely a re-prioritization of travelling safely, purposely and responsibly.
For the next six to twelve months at the very least, it’s clear that as an industry there is a need to continue to innovate, and better communicate advances to travelers. Tools and solutions that help travelers to navigate their way safely but efficiently, causing the least stress possible, is a core focus, Handcock added.
“For business travel, at this moment in time, it’s about understanding and evolving travel risk management strategies by engaging the right professional support, especially with the newly published ISO 31030 Standard, while for brands in the travel space, there’s increased importance being placed on loyalty programs with regards to keeping brands front of travelers’ minds with 68 percent describing them as very or quite significant. An increase of six percent since April,” he said.
CAPA - Centre for Aviation Managing Director, Derek Sadubin, added: “It has been a privilege to yet again work with Collinson, a global leader in traveler experiences, to further evaluate how our audience of senior experts see the future travel landscape taking shape. The findings are both insightful, and in some cases surprising. Overall, we must come together as an industry and use these insights to help identify where attention is required to progress the return of global travel.” (Photos: CAPA/Collinton/Google Images)
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