LAPULAPU CITY – Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) hosts the 2024 BSP-IMF Systemic Risk Dialogue in Cebu at Crimson Resort and Spa Mactan, November 19-20 with the theme, “Building Financial System Resilience Through Market Development and Innovation.”
In a press chat with BSP Assistant Governor, Dr. Johnny Noe Ravalo, he outlines the flow of the dialog from day 1 to day 2 with an introduction on why there is a need for such dialog. The discussion centered on the evolution of macro prudential policy post-2007, emphasizing the need for systemic risk management, as he highlighted the Great Moderation (1981-2003) and the 2007 Global Financial Crisis (GFC) as pivotal moments.
“The GFC revealed that individual bank safety
does not guarantee systemic stability,” Ravalo used traffic and human health
analogies to explain systemic risks. The conversation also covered the creation
of macro prudential departments in central banks and the concept of contagion
risk, exemplified by COVID-19.
The importance of anticipating systemic risks and the role of technology in financial markets were also discussed, with a focus on the need for collective regional action to address common issues.
He said that the dialog will discuss the
structural issues and the impact of technology as an enabler; explore the
regulation and coordination between the banking and non-banking sectors and identify
the common issues in the region and explore the possibility of a collective
approach.
The purpose of the joint conference with IMF, noting it is the third such event, with previous ones in 2019 and 2021 is to reflect on the lessons learned from the global financial crisis (GFC) and the need to re-evaluate macro prudential policy, Ravalo said.
The concept of the Great Moderation from 1981 to 2003 was introduced, highlighting a period of low inflation and strong growth that led to complacency. The GFC revealed that the safety of individual banks does not guarantee the safety of the entire financial system, emphasizing the need for systemic risk management, he added.
Central Banks and Systemic Risk Management
The creation of the Office of Systemic Risk Management at the BSP and the realization that systemic risk cannot be addressed by the safety of individual institutions, Ravalo used the analogy of traffic to explain systemic risk, noting that even well-maintained cars can lead to traffic congestion due to collective behavior.
He said that the importance of anticipating and managing systemic risks is emphasized, with examples such as the pandemic and the human body's health variability. He references Aristotle's principle that the whole is more than the sum of its parts to illustrate the complexity of systemic risk.
Ravalo also emphasizes the need for awareness and understanding of contagion risks, noting that many aspects of systemic risk are still not fully understood. The role of communication in managing systemic risk is discussed, with a focus on the challenges of identifying and addressing risks before they become critical.
According to Ravalo, Central banks worldwide have established macro prudential departments to manage systemic risk, with varying approaches across regions. He cited the concept of contagion risk with COVID-19 as an example, highlighting the spread of risks and the importance of early detection and management.
The Impact of Technology on Financial Markets
Ravalo said that the rapid advancement of technology and its impact on financial markets, including the shift from physical to digital currency and the implications of digital currency for regulators and the need to adapt to new forms of money.
There are challenges of monitoring and regulating the non-bank financial sector, which includes brokers, dealers, and fintechs and the importance of understanding the global perspective on financial markets and the need for coordination between banking and non-bank regulators is crucial, Ravalo noted.
He stresses the need for public awareness and
understanding of systemic risk to make informed financial decisions and the
role of the public in preparing for future financial challenges and making
informed choices about savings and investments.
“This conference aims to raise awareness and
identify key issues for collective action and preparedness; the importance of
involving the public in discussions about financial markets and systemic risk,
with a focus on transparency and communication,” Ravalo said. (Photos: MBCNewman)