CAPA, Collinson survey says travel industry to resume to pre-COVID levels after 2023

MINERVA BC NEWMAN

CEBU CITY – A new Collinson and CAPA-Centre for Aviation survey of C-Suite travel industry insiders or one-third of travel industry experts in Asia-Pacific region revealed and expected travel to resume to pre-COVID levels after 2023, “a return to ‘normal’ is unlikely before 2023.”

The survey was carried out in April 2021 by Collinson in partnership with CAPA, one of the world’s most trusted sources of market intelligence for the aviation and travel industry.  The survey aimed to capture a snapshot of the opinions of a specially-selected group of over 330 C-Suite and senior managerial level travel experts globally from leading travel industry brands.

 

The new research from Collinson, a global leader in traveler experiences and medical assistance, has pinpointed some key potential issues based on an in-depth survey of travel industry experts. 

In a media release from CAPA, it said that over half of travel experts surveyed or 51 percent of them expect that robust testing protocols will remain key to reopening global borders until end of 2022.  Widespread fears of fraudulent tests and vaccine passports may undermine use.

Survey said that as travelers in Asia long for the resumption of global travel, 89 percent of most travel experts believe that it is safe to travel, but they are pessimistic about the industry’s recovery – whether due to the policies being put in place, wider perceptions of safety, or both.

The data highlighted that 31 percent of respondents in Asia Pacific expect travel to return to pre-pandemic levels by 2023, closely followed by 2024 at 25 percent and late 2022 with 17 percent.

Results revealed that most travel experts in Asia Pacific surveyed overwhelmingly believed that it is now safe to travel with 11 percent saying it is extremely safe and 30 percent saying it is quite safe with a further 48 percent saying it is extremely safe provided preventative solutions are adhered to.

 

It added however that over half or 56 percent are very concerned at reports of fraudulent COVID-19 test results and vaccination passports as the quest for herd immunity continues.

According to the survey that global herd immunity is a key driver of the return to normality; and yet, because of public resistance to the vaccine in certain locations, coupled with vaccine inequality, this will take a considerably long time.

When asked what they thought was the most plausible scenario by 2022, 30 percent of experts in Asia Pacific believed herd immunity would be reached in the US, UK and a select few developed nations.

By contrast, 27 percent believed a handful of smaller nations would do so, with the rest of the world including the US and the UK failing to do so.  Only 16 percent believed that most countries in the developed world would achieve herd immunity by next year, it added.

Leisure and shorter-haul travel more likely to recover sooner.  A high number of respondents believed that leisure travel would recover significantly faster than business travel, while in both categories, shorter-haul flights will make a faster comeback.

When asked to select the most plausible scenario in 2022 for the recovery of leisure travel, 27 percent of respondents in Asia said they expect 41-60 percent of 2019 levels next year.

With that in mind, survey said that members of the travel ecosystem should continue to prioritize the mental and physical wellbeing of travelers by ensuring there are spaces for them to de-stress and relax during their journey,

Meanwhile, the outlook for business travel markets is weaker than leisure, the survey results bared.  It added that for short-haul flights, 31 percent expected to see 41-60 percent of 2019 levels next year while 35 percent of respondents expected long-haul business travel in 2022 will be only 20-40 percent of 2019 levels.

 

Despite business travel projecting a slower recovery than leisure travel, the survey also noted that companies should act now to equip their employees with the necessary tools for a safe return to global travel, including robust travel-risk management policies.

 Quarantine measures expected to ease due to testing, but with mixed market access

The survey results cited that most Asia Pacific respondents or 51 percent expected that robust testing protocols will remain key to reopening global borders until end of 2022.  Almost one-third or 32 percent of respondents believed robust testing protocols will remain key for the next three years, while just 13 percent expected testing will be phased out in 2021 in line with the vaccine roll-out.

Almost half or 49 percent of Asia Pacific respondents also believed quarantine measures will be phased out by 2022, with a further 11 percent expecting quarantine measures to be lifted by mid-2021, yet 30 percent still believed quarantine measures will remain in place beyond 2021.

The survey also noted that most Asia Pacific respondents or 58 percent expected aviation market access arrangements by governments to evolve at different rates, depending on the region/market through 2021.

It added that over a quarter or 27 percent expected aviation market access arrangement by governments to remain the same until at least 2022 while only five percent expected access arrangements to ‘substantially ease’ or even just ‘start to ease’ as we go through 2021.

It is therefore critical for governments and members of the travel ecosystem to come together and collaborate for the safe return of global travel, survey comments said.

Meantime, vaccine passports is considered vital but fears over fraud need to be addressed, survey bared that Asia Pacific respondents overwhelmingly or 75 percent shared the view that vaccine passports were of vital importance as governments won’t re-open borders without them.

Only 18 percent said that vaccine passports were not important as some governments will allow access regardless of digital health documents but, a further seven percent said they were not relevant compared to other issues, such as mutual recognition of vaccines, it added.

 

Asia Pacific respondents were also overwhelmingly, or 76 percent concerned by reports of fraudulent COVID-19 test results and vaccination passports surfacing, with only six percent saying they were not concerned.

With the survey results, Collinson supports the development of accredited testing solutions, along with Verifly, CommonPass and IATA, including the piloting of digital health passports aimed at reducing the chance of fraudulent activity while expediting the safe return of global travel.

“The global travel recovery won’t be immediate, but we do have the unique opportunity to make things better than ever before by working together to evolve current practices,” Asia Pacific President for Collinson Todd Handcock said.

Handcock bared that this joint research with CAPA has helped shine a light on the areas that require immediate, combined focus and effort from government bodies and private organizations, particularly those in the travel ecosystem in order to remove remaining barriers and help achieve the safe, long-term return of global travel.

CAPA - Centre for Aviation Managing Director, Derek Sadubin on the other hand said they are delighted to be working with Collinson, a global leader in traveler experiences, to better understand how the aviation and travel market is rapidly evolving.

“Surveying the viewers of CAPA Live, now the biggest virtual aviation conference in the world, always yields fascinating insights. This is a high-level, savvy and switched-on group of aviation and travel industry professionals, so their views carry weight,” Sadubin said.

From April 7, 2021 to April 30, 2021, CAPA surveyed participants in its virtual monthly event series, CAPA Live, receiving 331 survey responses from 64 locations with the majority coming from Korea, Taiwan, Vietnam, Bangladesh, Fiji, Indonesia, New Caledonia, Sri Lanka, Myanmar, China, Japan, Philippines, Hong Kong, Cambodia, Malaysia, New Zealand, Australia, India, Singapore, Thailand and Brunei.

Respondents were a mix of C-Suite, executives and senior managers from airlines, airports and aviation suppliers.  

Collinson is a global leader in the provision of traveler experiences including airport lounge access and medical and security assistance and travel medical services. Collinson’s traveler experiences include the world’s leading airport lounge and experiences programme, Priority Pass, as well as travel insurance, identity assistance, flight delay, international health and travel risk management solutions. (Photos: Google Images)